Distribution
of Grades: The following is the distribution of raw scores on the midterm exam.
The highest possible raw score was 70. As you can see, the large majority of
you scored within the ten points of the maximum. This is really very good!
Congratulations. Both Heather and I were very impressed. (By the way, if you
can' t see the distribution below, it is because you are using an older Internet
browser. You need to use Internet Explorer 4.0 or higher or a more recent
version of Netscape.)
Score

Number of People
If
you divide your score by 70 and multiply the result by 100, you will obtain the
percentage of total points that you got out of the total number possible. For
example, a score of 64 equals 91.4% correct while a score of 55 equals 78.6%
correct. We have assigned TEMPORARY letter grades to your midterm score based
largely on these percentages (however, your final grade in the class will be
based on a combination of your numerical grade on the midterm and your
numerical grade on the final exam):
90%
or above is an A (although something near 90% is more like an A- and something
like 97% is more like a A+). Anything less than 90% but 80% or above is B.
Anything below 80% but above 70% is a C. Anything between 60 and 70% would be
around a D. Anything less than 60% would be an F. Thus, anything less than a 42
would be an F. If you received a grade lower than a C, you should contact
Heather or myself.
Table
of scores for those who can't see figure:
Score Number of People
33 1
41 1
44 1
46 1
48 1
52 1
53 1
54 1
55 2
56 1
57 1
58 1
59 2
60 1
61 6
62 4
63 3
64 7
65 4
67 1
68 3
70 1
One
of the key ideas that some of you seem to have extracted from the lectures and
readings in the class is the notion that there are many different theories in
psychology that might be used to justify or design particular social policies.
This is certainly a true idea. There are many different theories of aggression,
of violence, and of crime. Sometimes the evidence for these different theories
seems strong, as far as the evidence goes. Thus, Freedman agrees that much of
the laboratory research dealing with the effects of TV violence on some
measures of aggression is fairly consistent. However, he still concludes that
it is not fair to generalize this evidence to the actual effect of TV violence
on crime or other measures of aggression in the "real world." While
many of you seemed to get this far, many of you went one step further, a step
that is not necessarily logically justified. Namely, you concluded that because
different theories are available and each seems to be supported by some
evidence, we can not make use any of them to help us decide what social policy
to pick. Stated differently, because there is disagreement, we have to reject
all theories.
But what is the consequence of
this view? One that many of you seemed to prefer is to "give up."
That is, you said things like: "This
theory hasn't been proven, therefore it can't guide social policy." "The theories contradict, so we can't
use any of them." "The lab
data is correlational." "No
theory has
ever been proven, therefore, we shouldn't use
any." My
question to those of you who said things like this is, "What do we use
instead? Go ahead, tell me! If you said, intuition or personal experience or
religion or you whatever the republicans tell you to do, or whatever seems
reasonable, what evidence do you have that any of these "naďve
theories" are better than any one or more of the conflicting, and
generally more formal, theories? Your answer almost surely is that you have no
such evidence.
Just because it is hard to
figure out which of the many different theories might be used to justify social
policy doesn't mean that you should reject them all! Science is not an easy
process. It is not foolproof, but it is often better than intuition and
personal experience! There are many examples of people firmly believing things
based on personal experience that have later been shown to be incorrect by the
careful collection of relevant evidence. For example, many Europeans once
believed that the earth is flat. Many believed that the sun moves around the
earth. Many believed that bacteria and viruses do not exist. You believe that
you see motion when you watch movies and TV but actually both are a sequence of
rapidly presented still pictures.
You have discovered a good
rule: don't believe a claim just because someone makes it. This is good.
However, you have over generalized this rule to mean that you can't believe any
claims that people make. This is not good. We will be working on
this issue more during the second half of the quarter now that I see we have
some problems in understanding. To do this, we shall have to discuss
methodology more generally. We will do this as we read about other areas of
social policy concern, e.g., racism, affirmative action, education,
intelligence, family values, and such.
One of the reasons that you
may not have seen the implications of your general rejection of the theories
that you learned about is a failure to appreciate the consequences of the fact
that we live in a complex "multi-causal" social world. Once we
realize that we live in a multi-causal world, a number of conclusions follow.
We shall examine these conclusions one by one as we proceed through the class.
Here is the first conclusion
that follows from the fact that we live in a multi-causal world. I present it
to get you started thinking about this issue. Some of you claim that there are
too many conflicting theories to be able to pick one. Well, rather than reject
them all, what if we accepted most of them and assumed they were all true, at
least in part. Why can't aggressive behavior be "caused" by multiple
mechanisms? Frustration might increase aggression. So might TV violence. So
might arousal. So might alcohol. So might reinforcement. Different theories
might all be correct in one of a number of different ways:
Thus,
in the first case above, one person might aggress primarily because aggression
provides that person with reinforcement, e.g., money. Another might aggress
primarily when they drink. And so on. That is, different mechanisms might work for
different people. We need to think about how to design social policies if this
is way the world of human behavior really works. You might want to go back and
rethink your answers to the midterm questions with the above in mind. Would it
change how you answered the questions?
In
the second case above, different mechanisms might work at different times for
the same people. For example, alcohol might only increase aggression when there
are appropriate instigations to aggression, e.g., if someone calls me a
"fatso," I might not react with aggression unless I had consumed
sufficient alcohol. In addition, if I consume alcohol, I might not aggress
unless someone calls me fatso. The point is, the alcohol might only have
effects when certain situational variables are present. When I am not drunk,
frustration might be a key factor in determining aggression. And so on. The
point is that the different theories might describe causal processes that take
over in different circumstances.
In
the third case, all of the theories might act simultaneously. Each might
contribute to a small increase of decrease in the probability that people will
behave aggressively.
So,
you see, just because there are so many theories, does not mean that we must
reject all of them. We might wind up accepting most of them, but in a more
thoughtful and carefully manner. Then again, we might not.
Grading Criteria Used on Midterm
Global
1.
Answer goes beyond
conclusions such as, “There is so much evidence and it all conflicts;
therefore, nothing should be done.”
Shouldn’t stop here, instead, ought to evaluate what crucial piece(s) of
evidence is lacking in theoretical and empirical claims, and why this crucial
evidence is needed to inform policy. If
research was done and evidence points away from the theory or policy, then what
would be the conclusion?
2.
Value judgments and
personal experience claims are minimal; policy analysis should be data/evidence
driven.
3.
Terms are used
precisely: Clear statements about what
is meant by aggression, poverty, violence, gun control, crime, etc.
Question
1. (20 points)
1.
Accurate/precise
description of TV violence theory (2
pts)
2.
Precise statement of
psychological mechanisms underlying theory (2 pts)
3.
Critical evaluation
of whether theory can inform policy decision (e.g., What is aggression? What is violence? What critical ages? Internal/Face
Validity? Generalization? Etc.) (6)
4.
Proposal of
alternative theories; should compare with 1 and evaluate (2 pts)
5.
Critical evaluation
of theoretical strengths, weaknesses, and limitations. What controls behavior according to
theory? Does evidence suggest that this
accurate? Individual differences? (4
pts)
6.
Evidence supporting
theoretical claim to which the author adheres. (4 pts)
Question
2. (20 points)
1.
3 or more aggression
theories described (5)
2.
3 or more evaluated
with regard to crime control policy (5)
3.
Proposal for changing
the current system: Must state who, to
what extent and in what manner; claim should rely upon evidence from
readings/lecture/web used (10)
4.
Super Brownie
Points: Cost/benefit analysis given
Question
3. (20 points)
1.
Author takes a
position on the issue, delimiting what is meant by “gun control” (4)
2.
Argument based on evidence is made concerning
why this type is more sound/effective than other types of control policies. (6)
3.
Precise statement of
psychological mechanisms involved (4)
4.
Limitations of
translating this position into a social policy (2)
5.
Based on evidence,
scope of policy is clearly laid out (e.g., who, to what extent, in what
manner.) (4)
Question
4. (10 points)
1.
Psychological theory
of behavior that the program assumes is given (2)
2.
Scope of program
questioned/addressed (2)
3.
In light of 1 & 2
above, how should program be tested? Outcome
measures: should realize that multiple
are needed, or at least point out the limitations if one is suggested. Should critically delimit “recidivism.” (4)
4.
Discussion of what
evidence would be crucial in order to evaluate program (2)